June 30, 2026

What we're seeing

• Profitability eases in May: Our proxy for business profitability is slightly lower than April on a month-over-month basis, though year-over-year gains remain solid, indicating sustained financial improvement relative to last year.
• Payroll growth moderates: After April’s gains, the net share of businesses expanding payrolls y/y pulled back to 23% and the median payroll increase y/y eased to 6%, though both metrics remain above year-ago levels, suggesting continued but varied willingness to hire in May.
• Million-dollar businesses, one decision-maker: Solopreneurs are drivers of economic value, making up about 10% of million-dollar businesses. Momentum is building—more owners are proving they can grow high-revenue companies while staying lean, with certain metros and industries emerging as strong environments for headcount-light growth.