January Small Business Pulse

Chase Center for Economic Intelligence

January 20, 2026

What we're seeing

• Profitability stabilizes after sustained growth: Profitability remains positive for the median business, with positive YOY growth that has been roughly stable over the last half of 2025. This financial strength sends positive signals about firms’ ability to weather shocks.
• Sentiment rides high: Small business optimism has been buoyant through the summer. Sentiment among business owners in December clocked in at series highs, with nearly ¾ of owners optimistic about their business.
• Payroll decelerates as businesses manage costs, uncertainty: Payroll expense growth has gradually slowed while total expense growth has ticked up, suggesting expense control is shaping labor decisions and contributing to the broader slowdown in employment growth.